China wants Trump re-elected in 2020 to achieve medium-term and long-term economic objectives, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.
The comments from Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, come after China fueled hopes that a deal can be reached to end its trade war with the U.S. after agreeing with Washington to roll back on some tariffs.
The deal to reduce trade tensions could encourage the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revise up global growth forecasts next year.
Mr. Green notes:
“There has been an argument that in regard to the trade war, China was holding out, playing the long game and waiting for President Trump to leave office, before dealing with another administration.
Whilst this argument might have held water before, I now believe this is not the case – and it is what is fueling recent developments in the trade war negotiations.”
“It is likely that China is currently fueling hopes to reach a phased agreement in the trade dispute with the U.S. and cancel tariffs as soon as possible because it will help President Trump’s re-election.
His re-election would suit them for two major reasons.
First, because they will assume that reaching a deal with Trump to end the damaging trade war will probably be easier than with some others. These include Elizabeth Warren, the potential Democratic rival, who could, say many supporters, win next year’s presidential election.
Ms Warren can be expected to be even tougher with China than Trump, and not only on trade, but on other difficult issues, including climate change and human and labor rights.
And second, despite the trade war, Trump’s policies and rhetoric have proven to be strategically helpful to China in achieving its longer-term goals.
In many respects, President Trump has undermined Washington’s global credibility, international governance bodies and key alliances, and has been indifferent if not antagonistic towards major trading agreements.
This all compromises America’s standing as the world’s primary superpower and it provides China with openings and opportunities it has previously never had in terms of global influence and setting international trade conventions.”
The deVere CEO concludes:
The positive signs coming from Beijing and Washington on the trade talks between the world’s two largest economies have been welcomed by stock markets – some reaching all-time highs this week.
Investors’ exuberance will grow further still should the deal be cemented, and also should Trump be re-elected.
However, U.S. investors should perhaps also question whether Mr Trump’s administration has, in fact, handed China a great strategic opportunity that could damage America’s preeminent superpower status in the longer-term and, therefore, its economic dominance.”